What a beautiful day Sunday is. It’s a break in the week where the morning slows down, allowing me to listen to some chill music before heading to a family lunch. It also seems like the perfect time to write down about some of my night thoughts pondering about equilibrium in our ever-changing world.
If you read my previous post, Can We Model the World?, I mentioned a book at the end: it’s End Times by Peter Turchin. I’m currently immersed in it and plan to write more once I’ve finished. The science behind it, Cliodynamics—an interdisciplinary area of research that combines historical analysis with mathematical modeling—is truly fascinating.
The Quest for Equilibrium
Let’s dive into one of my night thoughts: can there be an equilibrium that minimises suffering? You might wonder why not aim for a world where everyone is happy. As a society, we are constantly changing due to our desires, needs, and emotions. True equilibrium seems elusive because we often want what others have—be it goods, status, or basic needs.
This continuous transformation is inherent in any ecosystem, where change is perpetual. We might perceive each transaction as a mere transformation, yet we often witness people winning or losing, highlighting the complexity of our actions’ consequences.
Ecosystems consist of living entities that can adapt to changes, but societal adaptation—whether through transactions, knowledge, or thoughts — requires time. This complexity raises the question: is there a rhythm of change that allows for peaceful adaptation?
Rhythm and Regulation
By “peaceful,” I mean a change where winners and losers find a perpetual balance—a dynamic equilibrium that continuously adjusts to societal shifts. Is there a natural rhythm, or must it be controlled? Insights from Turchin’s book suggest that societies follow cycles of expansion and decline. However, these cycles don’t always lead to peaceful change. Should they be controlled, and if so, how?
While nature’s complexity might make it difficult to control outright, it can be regulated by adjusting various factors—either willingly or unwillingly. Regulating such complex systems raises questions about who controls the process. Will regulation create winners and losers? How do we ensure it isn’t manipulated by those who stand to gain the most? Could there be a tipping point where unsustainable regulation collapses? Cliodynamics offers some intriguing perspectives here.
Understanding Human Dynamics
Ultimately, the question of equilibrium is about understanding individual and social dynamics. This reminds me of the Integrated Behavioural Model (IBM) from a management course.
Our behaviour is shaped by several factors. These include our identity, core values, and raw emotions, which define who we are. Additionally, the roles we assume in different situations, our beliefs, and our knowledge and capabilities all play crucial roles in influencing our actions.
The Role of Shared Beliefs in Societal Equilibrium
It seems unlikely that everyone can have the exact same experiences or roles, and even if we did, our perceptions would still differ. Shared beliefs have often been used to unify societies, guiding collective actions towards common goals. However, there’s a risk that this could become a form of control, allowing an “elite” to manipulate these beliefs for their own benefit. This raises questions about the balance of power and the potential for exploitation.
Democracy has long been seen as a solution to prevent such control, yet we still witness failures within our democratic systems. How do we ensure that shared beliefs foster genuine equilibrium rather than enabling control by a privileged few?
Conclusion
In conclusion, while true equilibrium may be unattainable, we can influence certain factors to manage cycles. Can we break these cycles? Under what conditions might this be possible? What could help our societies thrive? What role can each of us play in striving for a more balanced society? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Feel free to reach out at night-thoughts@poyer.org with any remarks, ideas, or interesting reads.